Track record
The dashboard we built to keep ourselves honest.
Every prediction every brief publishes is logged, resolved against actual market outcomes, and aggregated into the per-bucket calibration view below. Updated nightly.
Last refreshed: 7/6/2026, 3:12:09 am IST
Calibration window mix: 35% of the last 90 days’ resolved predictions were backfilled from historical bundles (retrospective replay), and 65% were collected live. We disclose this explicitly because retrospective replay can encode hindsight; treat the displayed numbers as a directional read of the engine’s calibration, not a live-only track record.
Drift flags
options_strike · very_high
calibration_error +0.11 over 7d window (drift threshold 0.08)
Calibration error - last 90 trading days
Mean predicted probability minus actual hit rate, per prediction type. Dashed lines mark the ±8% drift tolerance.
Per-bucket calibration
A bucket is calibrated when its hit rate is close to its mean predicted probability - the calibration error column should hover around zero. Errors larger than |0.08| trigger a drift flag (above) and a note in the next brief’s confidence section.
touch watch
| Bucket | n | Hit rate | Mean predicted | Calibration error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| very_high | 136 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| high | 179 | 74% | 72% | -0.02 |
| moderate | 73 | 62% | 57% | -0.05 |
| low | 242 | 31% | 32% | +0.01 |
avoidance
| Bucket | n | Hit rate | Mean predicted | Calibration error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| very_high | 219 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| high | 173 | 76% | 72% | -0.04 |
| moderate | 209 | 55% | 57% | +0.02 |
| low | 204 | 34% | 32% | -0.02 |
options strike
| Bucket | n | Hit rate | Mean predicted | Calibration error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| very_high | 220 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| high | 192 | 69% | 72% | +0.03 |
| moderate | 104 | 61% | 57% | -0.04 |
| low | 132 | 29% | 32% | +0.03 |
These numbers are computed from a sanitised public view of the outcome log. Specific prediction ids, symbols, and levels are never exposed on this surface. Subscribers see the full per- prediction detail in their portal.